If we were to compare fashion and economics, logically speaking, we probably won’t be able to find a direct correlation between the two. Considering that fashion has been a reflection of world events for centuries, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that it is influenced by the state of the economy. Who could have imagined that fashion can predict the economy and vice-versa?
The first theory related to this phenomenon dates back to the mid-1920s, when economist George Taylor published his thesis “Significant post-war changes in the full-fashioned hosiery industry’’. He identified skirt length as a factor that contributed to immense growth of the hosiery industry after the war ended. Although the famous “Hemline Theory” is attributed to George Taylor, he didn’t actually proposed it in his thesis. The hemline theory, also known as the hemline index, implies that skirt lengths predict the rise or fall of stock prices. To cut the long story short, it is believed that skirts get shorter when the economy is in a good state and when the opposite happens (economic crises, recessions, etc.), skirts get significantly longer. Although, some economists claim that the theory is false, there have been numerous times it has been proven to be true. For example, in decades of good economic times such as the 1920s and 1960s, short skirts dominated the fashion world, whereas in the 1930s and 1940s (times of economic fragility), women chose to wear longer skirts as they were considered stylish. The hemline index was thoroughly researched in 2010 by a group of experts who concluded that “the
economic cycle leads the hemline with about three years". So this year’s skirt trends can be linked to the state of the economy 3 years ago which if we were to analyze, makes a lot of sense - as long skirts and dresses have gained popularity in the past few months and this trend certainly reflects the weak shape of the 2020 economy.
Another similar concept to the hemline index, and my favorite one, is the high heel index. It is theorized that when the economy goes through a bad period of time, heels get higher than usual. Women chose to wear higher heels during periods of economic uncertainty to feel more confident and powerful, as heels represent a means of escape. This concept can be clearly seen in decades of bad economic times such as the depression of the 1930’s and the oil crisis of the 1970’s when flats where replaced by high heels or even platforms. The average heel height today is double to that of 50 years ago, which isn’t a favorable conclusion to the thesis previously presented.
Besides the hemline and the high heel index, economists have noticed many similar phenomena related either to clothing items or day-to-day products. Some popular examples are the Big Mac index, the men’s underwear, and the lipstick index. Experts use these indicators which analyze human behavior and consumer habits, in order to try to predict the future, regarding the state of the economy.
Fashion gives people the opportunity to express their personality and emotions, and according to experts, it also gives the economy the same chance. Agreeing with these theories, fashion magazines can not only predict future fashion trends, but also partly forecast future economic tendencies.
Bibliography:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemline_index
https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2011/11/high-heels-for-a-down-economy-2
https://thegauntlet.ca/2022/10/31/the-hemline-index-how-fashion-reflects-economic-trends/
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